The Southern Ocean is turning around, at least for the group of leaders. After being ravaged by relentless low pressure systems for weeks, conditions have eased since the top 10 skippers passed the second great cape, Cape Leeuwin. A high pressure system has slowly accompanied them to the east, on the south side of which they are currently sailing, accompanied by moderate winds from west to northwest.
Everything peaceful, everything fine - actually.
The calmer conditions will feel like a relief to competitors, a welcome chance to relax, check out the boat, and do any repairs that may come up. However, new, different stress is now coming to them. Because the coming days will demand a series of difficult and momentous strategic decisions from the sailors.
First, let's look at the high pressure system that the fleet sails in. This high is currently 200 nautical miles north of leader Yannick Bestaven on Maître Coq. There is a narrow gap of about 150 nautical miles between this high and the Antarctic Exclusion Zone (AEZ) that allows the leader to move forward with good winds from the west. But it won't stay that way for long.
Because the high pressure zone shifts very slowly to the southeast, directly in the path of the peloton. A nice mess! Just on December 24th, the core will be at the latitude of the ice line.
How the weather in the Vendée will develop over the holidays
Between December 24th and 26th, the high begins to change shape as it is being compressed by the other systems in the area. It stretches out in length and forms a trough that is oriented from northeast to southwest and acts like a "wall" of light wind, which blocks the route to the east.
Navigating this situation is quite complicated, and we're going to look at a few options to overcome this scenario. First of all, it looks like the three best placed boats - "Maître Coq", "Apivia" and "LinkedOut" - have decided to sneak south of the high and get to its east side. It's a risky plan: win or swim, victory or downfall. If you make it, you will not only stay on the shortest route, you will also benefit from good half-wind conditions that are made for the foilers.
However, if the leadership trio moves too slowly, it will be swallowed up by the core of the high - and possibly for a long time - pulling in a similar direction. Finding a breath of fresh air could then become a puzzle.
For the immediate chase group, which also includes Boris Herrmann, there is no chance of passing below the high. That's why she's been following a more northerly route since yesterday, past the top. This course choice is a little safer because it does not lead through large areas with extremely light winds. However, it brings upwind conditions, actually not a parade discipline of the Imocas optimized for half and room wind. Nevertheless, this variant can be an advantage - namely when the top 3 in the south are not fast enough to escape the light winds.
How the weather in the Vendée will develop over the holidays
It might sound crazy, but on Christmas Day it looks like the top group will be sailing close to the wind, with a good 4 Beaufort. Not the most comfortable course, but definitely quieter than struggling with a full blown low. There is even an opportunity to celebrate the holidays on board.
After that, the skippers have two tactical options: Either they steer further north in search of a different weather system, or they stay near the ice line, continue to fight against the wind there and benefit from the shorter way to the east, until they get a breath of fresh air.
Going further north seems like a risky option, and not just because of the extra miles. In the worst case, there are no better conditions. It is therefore conceivable that the field of pursuit will split up: Jean Le Cam and Benjamin Dutreux may prefer to stay in the south with their conventional boats without hydrofoils because they are better suited for these VMG conditions close to the wind. Foilers probably prefer the northern option because there - assuming a cooler breeze - they will be better able to exploit their speed potential.
Figure 3: The ideal scenario for Yannick Bestaven. If the skipper of "Maitre Coq" manages to stay east of the high plateau moving southeast, he will benefit from a fast half-wind course along the ice line. This in turn could allow him to stick to the foothills of a deep south-east - a jackpot if it works
It will be very strange to see the leaders sailing against the wind in the coming days - the first time since entering the Southern Ocean. Only around December 27th does a low approaching from the northwest finally push the high-pressure system out of the way. The fleet will be able to attach itself to its back and return to a typical southern seas scenario.
On December 30th they will approach the point Nemo, the most distant point on earth from land. You can go into the new year knowing that they are probably the most isolated people on the planet. What will the ranking look like by then? It is still very difficult to predict today. There are some indications that the top group will move even closer together. Only Yannick Bestaven, the current leader, has a theoretical chance to break away. So it will be very, very exciting over the holidays!